More Than 7 in 10 Adult Nigerians Are Not Registered to Any Political Party Ahead of the 2023 General Elections.
Abuja, Nigeria. 23rd August 2022 – A new public opinion poll conducted by NOIPolls has revealed that 74 percent of adult Nigerians interviewed disclosed that they are not registered to any political party in the country. This assertion cuts across gender, geographical locations, and age-group. On the flipside, 20 percent of adult Nigerians admitted that they are registered members of different political parties, and have membership cards whereas, 6 percent are registered members but do not have a membership card.
Furthermore, finding revealed that the All-Progressive Congress (APC) has the larger share (41 percent) of respondents who are registered members. In addition, 34 percent of the respondents stated that they are registered members of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), while 10 percent are registered with Labour Party (LP) ahead of the 2023 general elections. Also, 10 percent of the respondents preferred not to disclose their party affiliations. Finally, of the 89 percent of adult Nigerians who claimed that they are registered to vote in the upcoming 2023 general elections, 95 percent acknowledged that they are looking forward to voting in the 2023 general elections.
These are the key findings from the countdown to the 2023 general election polls conducted in the week commencing 15th August 2022. This is the second in the series of the monthly election polls conducted by NOIPolls as Nigerians countdown to the actual elections in 2023.
Survey Background
Nigeria has a multi-party system with sometimes three or four stronger parties that are electorally successful. In line with the provisions of the 1999 Federal Constitution as amended and the subsisting Electoral Act, the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) is expected to conduct another round of general elections in Nigeria early in February 2023[1].
With about 26 weeks to the 2023 general elections in Nigeria, the outline of the 18 political parties registered and accredited by INEC for the 2023 presidential election would reflect the political events of 2022. Already, presidential, gubernatorial, and senatorial primaries have been conducted across all the political parties in Nigeria to select party representatives ahead of the 2023 general elections. While the major parties, APC and PDP, based on their spread across state and national assembly, are seriously canvassing the support of other Political Parties especially in the Presidential race, emerging political parties are also creating momentum in the political space. However, the ultimate deciding factor remains with the electorates.
Against this background, NOIPolls conducted its Election Series poll to seek the views of Nigerians on their awareness of the existing political parties ahead of the 2023 general elections. This is the second in the series of monthly election polls conducted by NOIPolls as Nigerians countdown to the 2023 general elections. The first being – Citizen’s Trust in Electoral Integrity, was conducted in July 2022.
Survey Findings
The first question revealed that an overwhelming majority of adult Nigerians nationwide (89 percent) claimed that they have registered to vote in the upcoming 2023 general elections. This assertion cuts across gender, geo-political zones, and age-group with at least 83 percent representation. On the contrary, 11 percent stated otherwise.
The poll findings further revealed that 95 percent of those who claimed to have registered to vote expressed their enthusiasm in voting during the 2023 general elections. This view also cuts across gender, geographical locations, and age-group with a minimum of 92 percent representation. However, 5 percent of said they are not looking forward to vote in the 2023 general elections.
Furthermore, to gain insight on the proportion of adult Nigerians who are registered members of political parties, respondents were asked: Are you currently a registered member of any political party? The results revealed that a huge proportion of adult Nigerians are not registered to any political party in the country. Analysis by gender shows there are more female (82 percent) than male (66 percent) respondents who mentioned that they are not registered to any political party in the country.
On the flipside, 20 percent of adult Nigerians admitted that they are registered members of different political parties, and have membership cards, although 6 percent claim they are registered members but do not have membership cards.
Subsequently, respondents who claimed to be registered members were further probed to ascertain the political party they represent. The finding revealed that the All-Progressive Congress (APC) has the larger share (41 percent) of respondents who are registered members regardless of those who own a membership card. Analysis by region indicates that APC has more registered members form the northern region (50 percent) than in the southern region (26 percent).
More findings revealed that 34 percent of the respondents stated that they are registered members of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), while 10 percent are registered with Labour Party (LP) ahead of the 2023 general elections. Analysis by region also revealed that both the PDP and LP have more registered members from the southern region with 44 percent and 18 percent respectively.
In the same vein, respondents who are not registered were further probed to know the political party they are likely to register with. The poll result revealed that the PDP (13 percent) and LP (13 percent) both have the same proportion of respondents who are likely to register with them, while 8 percent mentioned APC, 2 percent stated NNPP.
Further analysis showed that 41 percent of the respondents refused to disclose the political party they would register with, while 13 percent stated that they are not willing to register with any political party in the country.
Conclusion
The poll findings have revealed that a huge proportion of adult Nigerians are not registered with any political party in the country. On the flipside, 20 percent of adult Nigerians admitted that they are registered members of different political parties, and they have a membership card whereas, 6 percent are registered members but do not have a membership card.
Furthermore, the poll result showed that the All-Progressive Congress (APC) has a greater proportion (41 percent) of respondents who are registered members regardless of those who own a membership card. More findings revealed that 34 percent of the respondents stated that they are registered members of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), while 10 percent are registered with Labour Party (LP) ahead of the 2023 general elections. Finally, given that adult Nigerians have the voting right to elect their leaders, 95 percent of the registered voters have acknowledged that they are looking forward to voting in the 2023 general elections.
Survey Methods
The opinion poll was conducted in the week commencing August 15th, 2022. It involved telephone interviews of a proportionate nationwide sample of 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical regions and 36 states and the FCT of the country. Interviews were conducted in 5 languages – Igbo, Hausa, Yoruba, Pidgin English, and English. Although we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained were statistically precise – within a margin of error of plus or minus 4.65%; we recognize that the exclusive use of telephone polling has its limitation of excluding non-phone-owning Nigerians. Nonetheless, with the country’s tele density put over 100 percent by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), we consider our telephone polling approach appropriate. Also, given the rigorous scientific process of randomization and stratification applied, we can confidently stand by the validity of our methodology and approach.
NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country-specific polling services in West Africa. We conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com.
Disclaimer
This press release has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. Kindly note that while we are willing to share results from our polls with the public, we only request that NOIPolls be acknowledged as authors whenever and wherever our poll results are used, cited, or published. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect the views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact, or any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken because of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions, or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking.
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[1] https://www.inecnigeria.org/home/about-inec/